A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
